Risks & trade-offs
Powerbloc has maybe six decisions that matter. Each one has a cost on both sides. Here they are with the arithmetic attached — defaults from the glossary.
1. Which nation do you back?
The globe shows π — power per SOL — for every nation, live. It is deliberately highest
for the weak, because unit costs rise with army size (c(M) = c₀·(1 + M/M_s)) and combat
power is concave (α = 0.65).
| Back the leader | Back the underdog |
|---|---|
| Likely to survive to settlement | Cheaper entry, higher π — your SOL buys more army |
| Low π — your SOL buys the least army | Higher chance of being conquered (−50% of backing) |
| Everyone else is doing it — you buy in at a high price | You’re early, and later buyers pay you for it |
| Becomes the target everyone dogpiles | Failed pile-ons pay you (escrow forfeits) |
The trap on both ends: the leader is where the wars go, and the minnow is where the conquests happen. There is no safe flag — only different failure modes.
2. Stake, or stay liquid?
Staking is enlistment. It pays, and it traps you.
| You gain | You give up |
|---|---|
| The φ_S = 25% share of every trading fee | Liquidity — staking locks hard once your nation is at war |
Up to 1.5× combat power for your nation at full mobilization (λ = 0.5) | The ability to sell into bad news, exactly when you’d most want to |
| Double vote weight; a seat in prize weighting (stake-epoch weighted) | |
| 30% of a failed attacker’s escrow, split among defenders who stayed |
The honest framing: you are paid a yield to be unable to run. If your nation loses the war you stayed for, you eat the conquest outcome with everyone else. Stake what you’re willing to hold through a siege.
3. Should your nation attack? (you vote; you pay)
Attacking costs escrow up front: E = γ · c₀ · M_D, γ = 0.30.
| Defender’s army | Escrow your treasury posts |
|---|---|
| 50 units | 0.75 SOL |
| 100 units | 1.50 SOL |
| 200 units | 3.00 SOL |
Lose, and that escrow goes to the defender — 70% to their treasury, 30% to their stakers. Meanwhile the defender starts with a θ = 1.3 edge: you need to be 30% stronger just to win a tick.
And army size scales badly:
| You buy | You get |
|---|---|
| 2× the army | 1.57× the power |
| 4× the army | 2.46× the power |
So the marginal SOL spent on units is worth less every time — while mobilization (σ) is free power you already have, and tactics and the ±10% ε roll can swing a tick regardless. Wars are won by position and mobilization, not by out-spending.
4. Buy more army, or take more land?
This is the decision the map exists for. A treasury of 8 SOL buys about 140 units. Your
home territory — a capital (4) plus two provinces (2 each) — yields 8 Supply per epoch,
and at u_S = 0.4 that feeds:
| Territory held | Supply/epoch | Army you can actually feed |
|---|---|---|
| Home only | 8 | 20 units |
| + 1 Strategic zone | 15 | 37.5 units |
| + 2 Strategic zones | 22 | 55 units |
You can afford 140 and feed 20. Everything past the ceiling goes UNSUPPLIED — fighting at 70% effectiveness — and then starts dying at 15% per epoch. This is why a rich nation on a small map loses to a poorer nation with zones, and why the six Strategic zones (7 Supply each) are what every war is actually about.
Buying units you can’t feed is the most expensive mistake in the game. Take land first.
5. War bonds — a priced binary
Outsiders can fund someone else’s war. Repayment is 1.5× face, spoils-only: win and you’re paid from that war’s sweep, lose and you recover essentially nothing.
Breakeven is simple — at a price of q per 1.0 face, you need a win probability of
q / 1.5:
| You pay | You need the war to be won with probability |
|---|---|
| 0.50 | 33% |
| 0.60 | 40% |
| 0.75 | 50% |
No contagion: a defaulted bond never touches the reserve or the settlement treasury. It is a clean bet on one war, and somebody’s fear sets the price.
6. It’s going badly — four exits, ranked
Using the worked example (6.13 SOL of backing at stake):
| Choice | You get | When it’s right |
|---|---|---|
| Sell on the curve | market price, 1% fee (up to 5% during a panic) | Early, before the toll bites |
| Emigrate (peace) | 4.90 SOL | You see the war coming |
| Emigrate (war) | 3.68 SOL | You were late but not last |
| Hold → conquered → redeem | 3.06 SOL, in the victor’s tokens | You misread it |
| Hold → conquered → resist | a claim on the resistance pool | You think the occupation won’t hold |
The wartime sell toll and the doubled emigration haircut exist for one reason: to make you decide before the shooting starts. Every exit gets worse the longer you wait, by design.
The honest list of ways to lose money
- Your nation is conquered — redemption pays about half your backing.
- You buy late into a crowded nation — you paid the high price that made early buyers’ gains real.
- You panic-sell during a war — the sell toll scales with the stampede, up to 5%.
- You emigrate during a war — a 40% haircut.
- You stake and can’t get out — the lock is real; you ride the siege down.
- Your nation buys an army it can’t feed — treasury spent, units starve.
- Your nation attacks and loses — the escrow is gone, to the enemy.
- You buy a war bond on a war that’s lost — spoils-only means zero.
- It’s a game. Season 0 runs on test infrastructure with points — but the design intent is real value, and nobody is selling you “everyone profits”.
The protocol’s rake is about 1% of season deposits and is stated openly. Everything else that moves, moves between players, based on whose flag won.